Can by 2028, AI translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts? using a single other document in both languages (like a Rosetta stone). Suppose all of the words in the text can be found in the translated document, and that the language is a difficult one

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (22 traders, as of Aug 31, 2024).

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Will AI translators be as good as humans before 2030?

+3% 1d95% chance

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

2030

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

+9% 1d50% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

+9% 1d61% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

50% chance

By 2028, can AI perform translation as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation?

96% chance

Will AI extend English before 2032?

70% chance

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

89% chance

Will AI extend English before 2031?

68% chance

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

77% chance