Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?

MANIFOLD

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Dec 31

75%

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Resolves to YES if the worst day of the year 2026 in cyber security is 10/22 or later.

Resolves to NO if that date is already in the past when this market was created.

If the answer is not obvious, I will accept the judgment of Opus 5.5 based on this exact wording.

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A list for October, including many new ones: AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ (@AISafetyMemes) on X

Sounds like there's a good chance we had a "worse day" already. But we're also treating this stuff as the new normal and not getting shocked, so it's very possible that the actual worst day will never be noted as such. At any rate, sorting all the incidents by day and scoring them is gonna be a project.

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ (@AISafetyMemes) on X

Black October is causing *billions* in damages per PER DAY In just the last 10 days: - 129 new cyber incidents - 21 (!) would rank among the biggest incidents of a normal *year* ALL 129 INCIDENTS, RANKED BY SEVERITY: *** Year-level incidents (in a typical year, these would be among the biggest…

What is the worst day so far, in your opinion?

"worst" for red team or for blue team?

bought Ṁ20 YES

@retr0id Red would presumably be cyber insecurity.

I'm interested in a market on AI assisted attacks on the election. I'm ~90% bigger day later this year but ~30% substantial attack on us elections, if someone can think of a good way to resolve that