*Confirmation: Article in one of The Economist, NYT, Nature, or Science.
Based on LessWrong comment:
'gain of several standard deviations'
'we could have something working within 5 years, which might be soon enough to significantly impact the trajectory of AI.'
I'll add years beyond 2030 if necessary.
1,000Advance commitment: I'm holding YES on "others" because I think the proposed technology is unlikely to ever work, let alone in 20 years.
As the market makers split off new options, do not interpret my position as a YES for these years as an actual YES. I likely have not had the chance to sell that position yet.
@jgyou Other@63% split up into 2036@28% and Other@46%. How about your position?
(unrelated, I like your dashboard: https://manifold.markets/dashboard/-infectious-disease-epidemiology)
Confirmed, I'm a YES holder. I guess this means the ideal question design is to have a separate fixed cutoff option like "after 2050" or something like that.
.. and I sold too quickly and forgot to look but I still have the same other position, and had a bit of Mana on 2036 yes. someone traded on your split so I'm unsure of how big it was.