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MANIFOLD
Will there be a new country before 2028?
101
Ṁ1.8kṀ4.9k
2028
69%
chance

The country must be internationally recognized

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@Wobbles personally not holding you to your previous clarifications, but there is a dubious case that by the letter of them, four permanent security country members...

France formally recognises Palestinian state

what do you mean "internationally"?
Is one other recognizing country enough?

Yes, and it's name will be California

predictedYES

@Conflux Unless I'm missing something, the Bougainville market should be trading below this one.

Is there a minimum threshold for how many countries must recognize it?

@JimHays I'd say at least 5-10 UN countries or if one of the five countries on the permanent council recognize them (United States, France, United Kingdom, China, Russia). But in all honesty there is probably a better way to decide what counts.

@Wobbles Russia recognizes a lot of non-countries e.g. Abkhazia.

@xyz hmm that's true