Resolves YES if the Artemis II mission launches on or before April 31st Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A launch before April (e.g., in March) will also resolve YES.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 65% chance (27 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).

Will Artemis II launch before May?

Will Artemis II launch before May?

Ṁ130Ṁ1.1k

Apr 30

65%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the Artemis II mission launches on or before April 31st

Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A launch before April (e.g., in March) will also resolve YES.

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Maybe rename to "Will Artemis II launch before May".

bought Ṁ10 YES

My reading of the description is that a March Launch will resolve YES.

@LarsOsborne March is currently off the table https://x.com/NASAAdmin/status/2025249086908125630, but based off how I wrote the description, theoretically if Artemis II launches in March anyway this would resolve to YES.