MANIFOLD
Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?
29
Ṁ100Ṁ1.7k
2028
65%
Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan
35%
Trump wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan
0.1%
Harris wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan
0.3%
Harris wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

Market context
Politics
US Politics
Trump
Geopolitics
2024 US Presidential Election
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bought Ṁ264 NO

@WieDan "Harris wins" options resolve NO

bought Ṁ100 YES

@puffymist I can't do that unfortunately.

bought Ṁ20 NO

How does this resolve if:

  1. The term of the next POTUS ends before the invasion?

  2. The invasion is carried out by a different leader than Xi?

I should have ritten China instead of Xi I will change te title.
As for president ending term early (so death?) I think an invasion after should not count.

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Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?
31% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan while Xi Jinping is in power?
43% chance
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
36% chance
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Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
25% chance
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
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16% chance
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