Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?
7
250Ṁ1126
2030
5%
chance

If there is evidence of a new international agreement on the definition of the SI second on both the BIPM and NIST websites, then the market resolves immediately.

Any redefinition in which there is a primary optical frequency standard and secondary cesium microwave standard or in which the standard is a weighted average of optical and microwave frequencies will resolve Yes.

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