Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if AJ Styles loses his career-threatening match against Gunther at the Royal Rumble on January 31, 2026, in Saudi Arabia. If he loses, he will be forced to retire. The market resolves NO if Styles wins the match or if the match does not take place as scheduled. Resolution will be determined by official WWE broadcast results.
If AJ Styles is going to wrestle at other promotions in the year 2026 he will not count as retired
Background
Styles' current WWE contract expires at the end of 2026, and he has no plans to re-sign. The 48-year-old veteran has publicly acknowledged that he does not plan to wrestle past his 50th birthday. Gunther defeated John Cena in the latter's retirement match at Saturday Night's Main Event XLII on December 13, 2025, and AJ Styles confronted Gunther several times over the following episodes of Raw, and during the Raw on Netflix Anniversary Show on January 5, 2026, Styles slapped Gunther. In their recent Raw match, Gunther walked away with a controversial victory after Styles forced Gunther to tap out, but the referee never saw it, allowing Gunther to recover and steal the win on a technicality.
Considerations
With Gunther carrying unstoppable momentum, WWE is unlikely to halt his run at the Royal Rumble, which sets the stage for Styles to take another loss that could coincide with his retirement. However, even if Styles wins at the Royal Rumble, many insiders speculate that WrestleMania 42 could host his final match, meaning a loss at Royal Rumble is not the only path to retirement in 2026.
Update 2026-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open until the end of 2026 to determine if AJ Styles is completely retired. If AJ Styles appears at any other wrestling promotion in 2026, the market will resolve NO.
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@PaulBenjaminPhotographer @WeedbaronOfficial I agree, we need clarification since he conspicuously put his gloves back on and is probably not actually retired.
@Panfilo I agree with Both of you, i would say since it’s not clear if he is completely retired the market stays open till the end of 2026, if he appears at another Promotion in 2026 the result will be no, I also added it to the criteria
@WeedbaronOfficial I think YES holders will be a touch upset, the description very much implied this was a market about the match vs Gunther.
You'll also need to decide whether you mean 'retired' in the kayfave sense, or retired in the sense of not going to work.
Would him turning up on Monday/Friday and cutting a promo about how the referee screwed him but he accepts he needs to leave count as 'not retired' or does he need to be involved in physicality? An official match?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I would discourage a double pivot after updating the res criteria. I agree it leaned the other way before, given that description trumps title, but a clarification once given shouldn't be reversed.
@Panfilo Neither of my comments were suggestions per se, just highlighting possible issues/grey areas.
Not my market, not my monkeys...