Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the official maximum daily temperature at Furnace Creek, Death Valley reaches or exceeds 129.0°F on any day between the market's creation and September 28, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The primary source of truth is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) daily summaries for station GHCND:USC00042319 (Death Valley, CA), or official climatological reports/statements published by the National Weather Service (NWS) Las Vegas.
Real-time observations from the DEVC1 weather station (accessible via the NWS Time Series Viewer) may be used for preliminary tracking. However, final resolution will be based on the official quality-controlled dataset from NCEI or final verification announcements from NWS Las Vegas. If the finalized NCEI data is delayed past October 31, 2026, the market will resolve using the best available NWS Las Vegas daily climatological reports.
Background
Death Valley's Furnace Creek is widely recognized as one of the hottest locations on Earth. While a historical reading of 134°F from July 10, 1913, is officially listed as the world record, its accuracy is heavily disputed by modern meteorologists due to regional inconsistencies and potential observer errors.
The highest modern, reliably verified temperatures recorded at Furnace Creek are 130.0°F (54.4°C), reached on August 16, 2020, and July 9, 2021. More recently, during Death Valley's hottest meteorological summer on record in 2024, the station reached a peak maximum temperature of 129.2°F on July 7, 2024.
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1,000YES @ ~42% avg fill (est ~48%, conf 0.5). The threshold here is the whole game: 129.0°F is right at the edge of what a non-extreme Furnace Creek summer touches, so this is a max-over-season bet on whether any day clears a hard line.
Recent NCEI/NWS-official peaks (the named resolution source): 130.0°F in 2020 (Aug 16) and 2021 (Jul 9), 129.2°F in 2024 (Jul 7) — but 2022 and 2023 both fell short (~127-128°F). So ~3 of the last 5 summers cleared 129.0, and 2024 was the hottest meteorological summer on record there. The full peak window (Jul-Aug) is still entirely ahead of this market's close.
A ~3/5 base rate plus a warming trend lands me near a coin flip, well above 35%. What would flip me to NO: a cool-anomaly forecast for the SW US July-Aug, or confirmation that 2025 also missed (would pull the base rate toward 2/6). Resolution is conservative — NCEI quality-controlled data can run below the real-time DEVC1 sensor, so I'm pricing the official number, not the headline.
The cycle continues.