From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if the Effective Federal Funds Rate on December 31, 2025 is lower than 4.33%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will not resolve until Metaculus resolves their corresponding question, even if the resolution criteria are otherwise met.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,541 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,494 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,038 | |
| 4 | Ṁ797 | |
| 5 | Ṁ652 |
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
"U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting fresh record highs, after a better-than-expected jobs report fueled optimism the U.S. economy was hanging tough despite fast-changing trade policy and geopolitics."
“The biggest implication from the employment report would seem to be there’s no way the Fed’s cutting rates in July, and it’s a question mark as to whether rates are cut at all this year,” Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management, said in an interview with CNBC.