Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
61
99kṀ230kJan 2
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard has OpenAI as its organization.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
boughtṀ1,500YES
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
16% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
99% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
1% chance
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?
Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?
17% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
35% chance
Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?
36% chance