US population growth rate for 2025 will be

MANIFOLD

Ṁ150Ṁ878

Dec 31

0.3%

Greater than 1.0%

0.6%

0.75% to 1.0%

62%

0.5% to 0.75%

36%

0.25% to 0.5%

0.5%

0% to 0.25%

0.5%

Negative (population decline)

This market predicts the annual US population growth rate for 2025.

According to Census Bureau data, the US population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, the highest growth rate since before the pandemic. For January 2025, the Census Bureau projected a growth rate of 0.78% from the previous year.

However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected slower growth, with an average annual rate of just 0.2% over the next 30 years—less than a quarter of the rate recorded between 1975 and 2024. For the 2025-2035 period specifically, CBO projects an average growth rate of 0.4% per year.

Recent immigration policy changes and declining fertility rates could impact the 2025 growth rate.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve based on the official US population growth rate for calendar year 2025 (or the closest period approximating it) as reported by the US Census Bureau. If the Census Bureau reports multiple growth rates (e.g., for different time periods), the one most closely corresponding to the full calendar year 2025 will be used.

Sources: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/12/new-year-population.html https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61164

U.S. Population Projected to Reach 341,145,670 at Midnight EST on January 1

The Census Bureau projects U.S. population will hit 341,145,670 on January 1, up 0.78% from 2024. World population is estimated at 8,092,034,511, up 0.89%.

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JAN. 27, 2026 — Population growth in the United States has slowed significantly with an increase of only 1.8 million, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the new Vintage 2025 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html

Obviously something nearer to the calendar year might be published in the next 11 months.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@VonGadke Above 0.5% was obviously very close to the 0.5 cut-off without being clear whether it had been rounded up or down..

However more information has now been published on 25 June 2025
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2026/vintage-2025-pop-estimates.html

The nc-est2025-alldata-r-file12 file reports
MONTH YEARAGE TOT_POP
7 2025 999 341784857
12 2025 999 342229050

while the nc-est2025-alldata-r-file10 file reports
MONTH YEARAGE TOT_POP
7 2024 999 340003797
12 2024 999 340844356

The 27 Jan 2026 report
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html

said
JAN. 27, 2026 — Population growth in the United States has slowed significantly with an increase of only 1.8 million, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the new Vintage 2025 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
...
National Highlights

Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew by 1.8 million (or 0.5%) to reach 341.8 million.

So it seems the 1.8 million and 341.8 million and 0.5% figure in that press release seem to be agreeing with the more detailed figures quoted above using July 2024 to July 2025 figures quoted above. An increase of 1781060 on 340003797 is 0.52% so the 0.5% reported 27 Jan 2026 appears to have been rounded down and better fits in the 0.5%-1% group.

However, if we think the "US population growth rate for 2025" is better represented by Dec 2025 compared with Dec 2024 then the growth rate is nearer 0.406% which better fits in the 0.25% to 0.5% group.

Given you said "This market will resolve based on the official US population growth rate for calendar year 2025 (or the closest period approximating it) as reported by the US Census Bureau. If the Census Bureau reports multiple growth rates (e.g., for different time periods), the one most closely corresponding to the full calendar year 2025 will be used." rather than indicating it is has to be a headline growth rate published, it would seem that you should use either:
Dec 2025 over Dec 2024 the figures for which are now available and shown above, or
Jan 2026 over Jan 2025 but the proper vintage 2026 figures for Jan 2026 figures will not be available until ~Jun 2027 if past publication date patterns continue

It seems a long time to wait and 0.406 doesn't seem likely to increase to over 0.5% or further reduce to under 0.25% with just one month difference.

Therefore I suggest resolution should be based on the 0.406% for Dec 2024 to Dec 2025.

Wanted to point out that the population figures might be high error for the next few years. We fired a lot of relevant people, I think. And honest numbers are not a priority for this administration.