When will the worlds share of solar electricity reach 10% ?
When will the worlds share of solar electricity reach 10% ?
6
230Ṁ1462030
3%
2025
16%
2026
37%
2027
17%
2028
14%
2029
13%
2030
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@Joshua I think it will reach before 2030. I think it will break 3% this year. There is a rule of thumb that the larger an industry is, the easier it is to scale larger. Thats because the supply chains are all well established, new factories don't need to spend years tuning production. That point is about 5% of the market, which I think will be reached in 2025. The question is how long will it take to break 10% ? The faster it gets to 10%, the faster world will transition.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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