Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
31
1.3kṀ4214Jun 1
75%
Rafał Trzaskowski
10%
Sławomir Mentzen
10%
Karol Nawrocki
2.0%
1.7%
Krzysztof Stanowski
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2025 Polish presidential election.
This market's closing date and time, currently 8:00 UTC, 1 June 2025, may be pushed back if needed to ensure that it can stay open until the results are clear.
If no presidential election is held in Poland in 2025, this market shall resolve to "No one".
I will not bet on this market.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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