Alberta pipeline timeline

Question

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-alberta-energy-agreement-pipeline-9.6994715

MPO = Major Projects Office

All of the above questions apply only to pipelines that go to the BC coast.

If a question has implied prerequisites that are not met it will resolve NO. For example, if no route is proposed by the end of 2027, the "At least 3 First Nations along the proposed route sign benefit-sharing agreements, or otherwise officially approve construction by Dec. 2027" question would resolve NO, not N/A.

Note that unlike https://manifold.markets/UnconditionalProbability/pipeline-construction-starts-in-bc, I will only consider pipelines that are mostly/completely new. Shorter expansions of existing pipelines, like https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/pembina-pipelines-alberta-bc-9.7107831 won't count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Alberta submits a proposal to the MPO by July 1, 2026, followed by A private company publicly commits to being the primary financial backer by Dec 31, 2026 and At least 3 First Nations along the proposed route sign benefit-sharing agreements, or otherwise officially approve construction by Dec. 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).

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