MANIFOLD
Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
59
Ṁ115Ṁ5k
2029
15%
chance
4

Will resolve YES if the US Government formally withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while Donald J. Trump is acting US President.

Resolution will NOT be dependent on A 2/3 Senate super majority or act of Congress if Trump unilaterally withdraws and the Federal courts do not declare such withdrawal unlawful.

  • Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Notice of Denunciation Clarification:

    • Sufficient Action: The market will resolve YES if the US sends a formal notice of denunciation to NATO.

    • Waiting Period Irrelevant: The one-year waiting period between the notice and actual withdrawal is not required for a YES outcome.

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By "formally withdraws", do you also mean the one-year waiting period between the notification and the actual withdrawal?

@BrunoParga - will resolve YES if US sends notice of denunciation even if one year waiting period hasn't passed

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