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Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024?
9
แน€90แน€1.2k
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

For reference, they reported 9.02M births in 2023.

https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html

This number excludes "residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities."

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bought แน€555 NO

Birth rate projections don't look good. 8.5 million is a significant decrease, but this market is underpriced.

@Vorak I would not say an increase from a TFR of 1.03 to 1.12 in a year of the dragon is "good" but I think no way this resolves yes: https://x.com/mi233695/status/1865443926338871609

bought แน€25 NO

Unlikely, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese Zodiac which some superstitions ascribe to be an auspicious time to be born

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