There's a certain amount of randomness, for example two strong teams can play each other early on, eliminating one of them. Also performance on the day, weather, climate acclimation, injury during the game, etc… It could be a mistake to assume it's going to be one of the top few countries and that nobody else has more than 1% chance. Maybe one of the top dozen of the disfavoured countries could win.

Only one option can resolve YES, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye as far as I know, unless 2 teams somehow win the FIFA World Cup that year

@Tripping Err... is that a yes? Your comment is just blank space lol

Edit: thanks for clarifying

@Tripping You should have selected "Only one answer can resolve YES" when creating the market

@Simon74fe no, doing it this way allows for early resolutions as teams get eliminated from qualis etc

@Simon74fe strongly disagree, selecting that highly decreases the market inefficiencies we trader can benefit from.