MANIFOLD
How many units will the Nintendo Switch 2 sell in 2025?
28
แน€600แน€10k
resolved Feb 3
Resolved
YES
At least 1 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 5 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 6 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 7 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 8 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 9 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 10 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 11 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 12 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 13 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 14 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 15 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 16 million units
Resolved
YES
At least 17 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 18 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 19 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 20 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 21 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 22 million units
Resolved
NO
At least 23 million units

Resolution will be based on Nintendo investor relations information releases. The release concering sales numbers up to the end of the calendar year usually comes out in February of the following year. Preliminary data from information releases in August and November 2025 which should have sales numbers up to the end of the first 3 and 6 months of the Japanese fiscal year will be used to resolve some answers early if applicable.

Please ask in the comments if you have any questions.

Market context
Gaming
Nintendo
Nintendo Switch
Nintendo Switch 2
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https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2025/250801_2e.pdf

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2025/250611.html

opened a แน€15,000 NO at 38% order

@jks would you like to bet a lot on 25 million YES at 38%? i put a limit order up

sold แน€0 NO

1 million resolves yes.

bought แน€9 YES

@121 wanna place some big NO bets on this market? would love to negotiate

opened a แน€6,000 YES at 55% order

@121 limit order up on 5mil if you want to fill it

@121 sorry my bad, let me free up some mana

opened a แน€1,500 YES at 55% order

@121 order is back up

People are also trading

How many units in total will the Nintendo Switch 2 have sold by the end of 2026?
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 outsell the Nintendo Switch by 2030?
20% chance
How many copies (in millions) will the Nintendo Switch sell by the end of fiscal year 2027?
158
Will a Nintendo Switch 2 budget model be released before 2029?
80% chance
Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Sony PlayStation 2?
10% chance
When will Nintendo release the Switch 2โ€™s successor?
2/17/32
In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?
83% chance
Will Nintendo release an OLED version of the Switch 2 within 2 years of release?
22% chance
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