How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will Texas lose/gain after the next U.S. census?

Question

The number of seats each state has in the United States House of Representatives is determined according to the most recent decennial census, as mandated by the US Constitution.

The next census is in 2030. This market will resolve to the outcome that corresponds to the amount of seats that the state has gained or lost following reapportionment based on the results of that census.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gain more than 2, followed by Gain 2 and Gain 1 are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Jan 9, 2026).

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