Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States enacts new export controls on energy products (including but not limited to crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, LNG, coal, or uranium) at any point during 2026. This includes executive orders, regulatory changes, or legislation that restrict or limit the export of these commodities.

Resolution is based on official announcements from the Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, or other relevant federal agencies, or passage of legislation by Congress. The market resolves NO if no such controls are enacted by December 31, 2026. Owing to potential for subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.

• Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves YES as soon as export controls become effective, even if they are later enjoined or overturned by a court.