Will in-vitro gametogenesis be used to produce a functional embryo by 2028?

MANIFOLD

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2028

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Egg must be produced through in vitro gametogenesis. Origin of sperm unimportant. Whether the fertilized egg is used or discarded does not affect resolution, as long as the consensus is that it is capable of implanting and being carried to term.

Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding evidence standards for resolution: anonymous sources in a reputable publication are sufficient, as is confirmation from a trusted expert in the field. General hearsay is not sufficient.

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I don't know, but it seems to me very strongly if this gets any traction at all, this could be a gamechanger:

Modernising regulatory pathways for assisted reproductive technologies: a case study on in vitro gametogenesis (IVG)

bought Ṁ200 YES

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanogw/article/PIIS3050-5038(25)00052-4/abstract

Just a moment...

How reliable do the sources claiming this need to be and how public the feat itself? Journalists claiming a thing to be virtually certain though clandestine, be enough for a YES?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll take anonymous sources in a reputable publication, or someone I trust in the field telling me that it happened. But otherwise hearsay not sufficient.