Canada's population declines in 2025?

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resolved Jan 1

Resolved

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Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Statistics Canada’s Table 17-10-0009-01 shows Canada’s population on January 1, 2026 is strictly lower than on January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO. Use the first official Q4 2025 release (expected March 2026); ignore later revisions unless StatsCan issues an explicit correction within 30 days. Baseline: 41,528,680 on Jan 1, 2025. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

Background

StatsCan’s quarterly population estimates are the standard reference and include non‑permanent residents (e.g., international students, temporary workers, asylum claimants). (www150.statcan.gc.ca)
Q1 2025 estimate: 41,548,787 on April 1, 2025 (slightly above Jan 1, 2025). (www150.statcan.gc.ca)
The federal government’s 2025–2027 immigration plan targets lower permanent admissions and a reduction in temporary residents; IRCC stated this plan is expected to produce a marginal population decline of ~0.2% in 2025 and 2026. Recent years saw record growth in 2023 driven largely by temporary migration. (canada.ca, reuters.com)

Considerations

Because StatsCan counts non‑permanent residents in population, policy-driven outflows (permit expiries, fewer study/work permits) can quickly affect totals, independent of births/deaths. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)
Resolution hinges on the Jan 1, 2026 estimate; intra‑year increases (e.g., Q1 2025 rise) don’t matter if year‑end falls below Jan 1, 2025. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

Market context

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New market for 2026: https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/canadas-population-declines-in-2026

I screwed up the description text, saying that it resolves with Q4 2025. Via https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901, that's 41,575,585, which is greater than 41,528,680.

Resolves NO

@TonyGao I'm sorry I completely disagree? This should resolve based on the Jan 1 estimate that comes out with March. The Oct 1 estimate doesn't make sense

@TotalVerb the current estimate is still higher than 41,528,680 anyways https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm

@ItsMe this clock is just an extrapolation from the last data point and the description explicitly states it's going to wait for the March estimate which is based on actual data

@TotalVerb so iirc the description was written with AI, which is why I even thought this market was for something else. But it clearly says the Table on Jan 1 for Q4'25. The reference to March is when the data is "expected", not that resolution would wait for it.

@TonyGao "Resolves YES if Statistics Canada’s Table 17-10-0009-01 shows Canada’s population on January 1, 2026 is strictly lower than on January 1, 2025."

The fact that the AI hallucinated that the Q4 release should be used, which does not contain that information, should not contradict the first sentence of the criteria?