Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
13
1kṀ2254
2035
10%
chance

From an FAA report:

https://www.faa.gov/about/plansreports/congress/risk-associated-reentry-disposal-satellites-proposed-large

"By 2035, if the expected large constellation growth is realized and debris from Starlink satellites survive reentry, the total number of hazardous fragments surviving reentries each year is expected to reach 28,000, and the casualty expectation, the number of individuals on the ground predicted to be injured or killed by debris surviving the reentries of satellites being disposed from these constellations, would be 0.6 per year, which means that one person on the planet would be expected to be injured or killed every two years."

  • Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Intentional Deorbiting: If a Starlink satellite is intentionally deorbited with the goal of causing harm, it will be counted towards the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)

Technology
Space
SpaceX
Commercial spaceflight
Rockets
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bought Ṁ10 YES2mo

Does this count if the starlink satellite was being launched into space and the rocket exploded somewhere in the ascent stage, and there is strong evidence that a starlink satellite which was part of the payload lands somewhere and injures someone?

2mo

https://spacenews.com/spacex-slams-faa-report-on-falling-space-debris-danger/

SpaceX satellites are designed to totally burn up on re-entry.

bought Ṁ30 YES2mo

Does this count if a starlink satellite is intentionally deorbited with the goal of causing harm?

2mo

@MalachiteEagle Sure, I think that's unlikely, but I would count it.

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