MANIFOLD
Which countries will make major efforts to influence the 2024 US presidential election?
4
Ṁ200Ṁ92
resolved Jan 7
ResolvedN/A
Resolved
N/A
Russia
Resolved
N/A
Iran
Resolved
N/A
China

After the 2020 election, the National Intelligence Council issued this report: ICA-declass-16MAR21.pdf (dni.gov). I expect to resolve this question based on a similar report. If no similar official report is made public by the end of 2025, this question will resolve N/A.

Based on the Key Judgments, Russia and Iran would have resolved YES for the 2020 election. All other countries would have resolved NO.

Note Key Judgment 5: "We assess that a range of additional foreign actors—including Lebanese Hizballah, Cuba, and Venezuela—took some steps to attempt to influence the election. In general, we assess that they were smaller in scale than the influence efforts conducted by other actors this election cycle."

I would not include any countries whose attempts are similarly described as "smaller in scale".

  • Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has determined that no official report similar to the 2020 National Intelligence Council report has been published after the 2024 election. Based on the original resolution criteria requiring such a report, the market will resolve N/A.

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