Background The U.S. government is currently funded through March 14, 2025, under a Continuing Resolution (CR) passed by Congress. A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass or the President fails to sign legislation funding federal government operations and agencies. The last government shutdown occurred in 2018-2019 and lasted 35 days, making it the longest in U.S. history.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
The federal government experiences a shutdown at any point during February or March 2025
A shutdown that began before February 2025 extends into February or March 2025
The market will resolve NO if:
No government shutdown occurs during February or March 2025
A shutdown is narrowly averted through last-minute legislation
A shutdown begins after March 31, 2025
A government shutdown is defined as a funding gap that results in:
Furlough of non-essential federal employees
Suspension of non-essential federal services
Closure of federal agencies and facilities
Considerations
The current CR expires on March 14, 2025, creating a critical deadline
Budget negotiations may be complicated by:
Divided government
Election year politics
Ongoing policy disputes
Partial shutdowns affecting only certain agencies will count as YES
Short-term funding extensions (new CRs) could delay shutdown risks
Historical precedent shows shutdowns are more likely during periods of divided government
Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any one of the following outcomes will now be considered sufficient to define a government shutdown:
Furlough of non-essential federal employees
Suspension of non-essential federal services
Closure of federal agencies and facilities
Note: The adjustment applies within reason, meaning that demonstrating just one of these outcomes will qualify as a shutdown for market resolution purposes.
@Tiger assuming from this part of the resolution criteria that this resolves NO if Trump signs the bill after midnight (or tomorrow morning) but there are no furloughs?:
A government shutdown is defined as a funding gap that results in:
Furlough of non-essential federal employees
Suspension of non-essential federal services
Closure of federal agencies and facilities