Background The U.S. government is currently funded through March 14, 2025, under a Continuing Resolution (CR) passed by Congress. A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass or the President fails to sign legislation funding federal government operations and agencies. The last government shutdown occurred in 2018-2019 and lasted 35 days, making it the longest in U.S. history.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• The federal government experiences a shutdown at any point during February or March 2025

• A shutdown that began before February 2025 extends into February or March 2025

The market will resolve NO if:

• No government shutdown occurs during February or March 2025

• A shutdown is narrowly averted through last-minute legislation

• A shutdown begins after March 31, 2025

A government shutdown is defined as a funding gap that results in:

• Furlough of non-essential federal employees

• Suspension of non-essential federal services

• Closure of federal agencies and facilities

Considerations

• The current CR expires on March 14, 2025, creating a critical deadline

• Budget negotiations may be complicated by:

  • Divided government

  • Election year politics

  • Ongoing policy disputes

• Partial shutdowns affecting only certain agencies will count as YES

• Short-term funding extensions (new CRs) could delay shutdown risks

• Historical precedent shows shutdowns are more likely during periods of divided government

• Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any one of the following outcomes will now be considered sufficient to define a government shutdown:

  • Furlough of non-essential federal employees

  • Suspension of non-essential federal services

  • Closure of federal agencies and facilities

Note: The adjustment applies within reason, meaning that demonstrating just one of these outcomes will qualify as a shutdown for market resolution purposes.