Will the U.S. Government experience a shutdown in February or March of 2025?
54
600αΉ€19k
Apr 2
1.1%
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Background The U.S. government is currently funded through March 14, 2025, under a Continuing Resolution (CR) passed by Congress. A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass or the President fails to sign legislation funding federal government operations and agencies. The last government shutdown occurred in 2018-2019 and lasted 35 days, making it the longest in U.S. history.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

  • The federal government experiences a shutdown at any point during February or March 2025

  • A shutdown that began before February 2025 extends into February or March 2025

The market will resolve NO if:

  • No government shutdown occurs during February or March 2025

  • A shutdown is narrowly averted through last-minute legislation

  • A shutdown begins after March 31, 2025

A government shutdown is defined as a funding gap that results in:

  • Furlough of non-essential federal employees

  • Suspension of non-essential federal services

  • Closure of federal agencies and facilities

Considerations

  • The current CR expires on March 14, 2025, creating a critical deadline

  • Budget negotiations may be complicated by:

    • Divided government

    • Election year politics

    • Ongoing policy disputes

  • Partial shutdowns affecting only certain agencies will count as YES

  • Short-term funding extensions (new CRs) could delay shutdown risks

  • Historical precedent shows shutdowns are more likely during periods of divided government

  • Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any one of the following outcomes will now be considered sufficient to define a government shutdown:

    • Furlough of non-essential federal employees

    • Suspension of non-essential federal services

    • Closure of federal agencies and facilities

Note: The adjustment applies within reason, meaning that demonstrating just one of these outcomes will qualify as a shutdown for market resolution purposes.

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Do you think that I should resolve this market early?

bought αΉ€250 NO

@Tiger assuming from this part of the resolution criteria that this resolves NO if Trump signs the bill after midnight (or tomorrow morning) but there are no furloughs?:

A government shutdown is defined as a funding gap that results in:

  • Furlough of non-essential federal employees

  • Suspension of non-essential federal services

  • Closure of federal agencies and facilities

@bens Good question. I will adjust it so that any one of these would work, within reason.

@Tiger edit: nvm

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