
Will Tumblr Survive Another 10 Years?
Will Tumblr Survive Another 10 Years?
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Tumblr is often called the cockroach of the internet, as it always seems to be at the brink of collapse, but is always active. But, as the internet progresses, will it's original spirit survive until 2033?
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What is meant by "its original spirit"? Is there a scenario where the tumblr.com domain is still actively used in 10 years that wouldn't resolve YES?
predictedYES 1y
@Kraalnaxx if tumblr turns into your average social media where people beg for followers and dashboards are dominated by "for you" algorithms, i would resolve no, as that is not tumblr anymore. thats rebranded twitter.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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