Which of the Moon, Mars and Antarctica will be the first to reach a population of 100,000?
Which of the Moon, Mars and Antarctica will be the first to reach a population of 100,000?
18
1kṀ24252050
1D
1W
1M
ALL
20%
the Moon
38%
Mars
46%
Antarctica
Resolves at the first of the Moon, Mars and Antarctica to reach a population of 100,000.
Emulated humans count, probably, if that comes up before humans go extinct I'll issue a ruling when we know what they look like.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will there be a permanent population in Antarctica before a semipermanent population on the moon?
62% chance
When will the total number of humans on the Moon and its orbit reach 100 for the first time?
Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050?
30% chance
A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
43% chance
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2063?
47% chance
Who will be the first person on Mars?
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2050?
27% chance
Conditional on humans settling mars by 2050, whose spaceships will send more of the first 100 settlers?
Will there be >100 humans living on the moon in 2063?
50% chance
What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?