Each option resolves at a % corresponding to the % of the House Democratic Caucus that is also a member of the ideological caucus listed, out of the given options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New Democrat Coalition, followed by Congressional Progressive Caucus and NDC and CPC are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Democratic House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

44% chance

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

87% chance

Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]

+6% 1d23% chance

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Which California House Districts will Democrats win in the 2026 Midterms?

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

89.2

Which Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

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