For interpreting this market, you should discount the Above 50 bucket. Imo that's near 0% but I don't have the liquidity to bring it down and also like it's going to be influencing the average even when it just has the probability corresponding to the price of locking up mana

See my comments on /zQ4Z82W/how-many-human-cases-of-guinea-worm-310c09a5eca8

Updating a bit (and trying less hard on the stats):

From previous GW wrapups

Year: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Total case count: 27, 15, 13, 14, 15, 10

Year: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Case count up to September: 24, 11, 9, 9, 7, 10
Diffs: +3, +4, +4, +5, 0

Average diff is 3.2±1 using sample sd of diffs.

Ratios: 1.125, 1.364, 1.444, 1.556, 1

Average of ratios is 1.3

My intuition is that the ratio method is more accurate - after all, the thing that's happening is that we are looking only at the GW cases in the first 2/3 of the year.

My 2024 prediction ended up too low, by like 5 cases. But done on 2025, I'd have ended up too high by like 3.

Current wrapup data for this year is up to July, with 4 cases. That's less than in previous years: up to July, 2023 had 6, 2024 had 9, 2025 had 6.

So, I'd be surprised if we got 15 again. I think my prediction is 10.