Will hurricanes be common in California by 2035
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This is unlikely because hurricanes are formed in the tropics, whereas the prevailing currents off the California coast go from north to south (that’s why the ocean is so cold).

This market closes on December 19, 2023; I suspect it would be more interesting if it remained open until the resolution date.

How are you defining "common"?

@EvanDaniel once or twice a year.

@SusanDuenas Every year between now and 2035? Just one or two in 2034? Something in between?

What counts as "in" California? See this discussions for examples that might be relevant:
/mark1263/will-california-be-hit-by-a-hurrica

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Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2025 Hurricane Season?
When will first named hurricane hit Florida in 2025
How many major hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
3.69
Will a category 5 hurricane hit the USA before 2026?
28% chance
Will california be hit by a hurricane before January 1rst 2028
18% chance
How many hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
7.1
Will a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Cat. 3+) form in the Atlantic basin before July 31, 2025?
28% chance
Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025?
29% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
[Metaculus] Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?
64% chance
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