Between houthis and Hezbollah's fairly consistent bombing (the de facto powers controlling Yemen and Lebanon in practice) I'm not sure this shouldn't already settle as yes.

this question was affected by the bug over the weekend that prevented subsidy getting added, which is why it feels so swingy. I've added a small bit back in so it's not completely terrible to trade in.

This should be trading lower than 1%. When does it resolve?

@AmHa at the end of the conflict!

Actually, the most likely candidates are countries border with Israel. Egypt and Jordan has peace agreements and rely on American support. Syria and Lebanon and in fragile position politically and economically. So Iraq?

Just stating the fact that Iran is not an Arab country

@0482 True, I always forget Iran and Turkey are not Arab. 👍

Would this include a coalition of terror groups, ie. Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian/Iranian Rebels (IS/ISIS/ISIL), Wagner team up against Israel or would it need to be more like Syria and Iran as a country create a coalition and attacks?

@SirCryptomind "coalition" to me says it must include multiple national forces, regardless of other members. seems fair?

@Stralor What about if Lebanon & Hezbollah attack Israel while Israel is attacking Gaza? (They are already fighting, but more like "hey, you stay on your side, we will stay on ours" but it could escalate.

Say, for example purpose: Those 2 attack in response to: Israeli strike kills a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon (Reuters)
Would that count?

And for that. do you consider Lebanon an Arab country since they are a Member State of the Arab League?

Last question is, does the initial aggressor matter?

@SirCryptomind ooo good questions.

Lebanon: yes. counts, but only if official (not if Hezbollah acts independently), and also not enough on its own (not a "coalition" of Arab states)

Palestine: does not count as we need new countries

Initial Aggressor: hmm, yeah I think that matters. Israel could "pre-act" against them building forces to attack and I'd still count it though

@Stralor in the case of reacting to border skirmishes, I think that depends on who first triggers a larger conflict or invasion

@Stralor updated desc

@Stralor Great update to the description. Appreciate it! It all makes sense and clarifies everything I asked!