Sitting at -$5 Million Mana, Tumbles has all but admitted defeat in personally paying back all his creditors, represented by the (as of writing) 86% probability estimated that he will be late paying back a loan. Despite this, there is a thriving secondary market for "Tumbles Debt" (and good faith efforts by Tumbles to do what he can to avoid defaulting on loans), implying that there is some belief that somehow Manifold will find a way to maintain the Tumbles Financial Complex as long as it can.
Which Creditor will be the first that Tumbles is not able to pay? Resolves to the Creditor (or split between Creditors) that own Tumbles debt and are not paid on their due date based on the ledger tracked on the main market. Only resolves to the most current Creditor of a debt after it is sold, and if multiple Creditors miss their payback on the same day, the market resolves split between those users (split equally by users, regardless of loan size).
Resolves the first day of being late on a loan, regardless if the loan is later paid. Feel free to add Users and/or use this market to hedge your credits!
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@StopPunting any reason this hasn't resolved? are you looking for confirmation of the last minute ledger changes?
@deagol Nope I've just been busy, I'll have resolve it now, thanks for the help figuring out which loans defaulted!
@StopPunting "...based on the ledger tracked on the main market." But there's several changes that aren't yet reflected in the ledger, and @Tumbles may not be able to update it in time before the first batch of loans are late, in about 1.5h. Hopefully you'll wait until the ledger is up to date before resolving this? Thanks.
@StopPunting so the ledger currently shows 13 defaulted creditors for June 8, of which 5 granted extensions in comments before the midnight deadline, leaving an 8-way split for this market:
@cthor (acting for JUMBLES) extended it for a month
@TheWabiSabi extended it a day
and @Gen extended it a day as well.
The only answer naming a defaulted creditor here is @Quillist which would resolve to 12.5%, and 87.5% to "Other". Not sure if those half percent are possible, or perhaps it might end up as 12% and 88%, or 13% and 87%.
@deagol half percent are probably possible if one enters "1" and "7" to appropriate fields, and Manifold rescales those itself?