MANIFOLD
NFL Week 16 - Prop Bets
28
Ṁ5kṀ57k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
YES
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Resolved
YES
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Resolved
YES
Safety Scored
Resolved
YES
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Resolved
YES
Fake Punt
Resolved
YES
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Resolved
YES
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Resolved
YES
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 40+ points
Resolved
YES
Pick Six
Resolved
YES
35% or higher Kick Return rate
Resolved
YES
Any 400 yard passer
Resolved
YES
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Resolved
YES
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
Resolved
YES
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
Resolved
YES
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Resolved
YES
Will a championship belt change teams?*
Resolved
YES
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
Resolved
YES
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

2025-26 NFL Season - Week Sixteen

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

  • At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    • Favorite based on DraftKings closing line

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Based on closing DraftKings lines

  • A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    • If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season

    • Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)

    • Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)

  • Fake Punt Attempt

    • If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting

  • Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    • The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout

    • Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases

      • No Injury

      • If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)

      • Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs

  • Fat Guy Touchdown

    • A player that would be considered fat scores a TD

    • All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)

      • Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)

  • Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)

    • Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)

  • A 4th and 11+ is converted

    • First downs as the result of penalties do not count

    • This logic applies similar to any other prop like this

      • "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play

  • Top 5 Super Bowl favorites

    • If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%

  • Will a championship belt change teams?

  • In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

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@StopPunting i stand by thinking these last two resolve as no but worth looking at when you have time.

Here is to hoping you do some sort of crazy fun props for playoffs as well!

@MRME what's the debate? Chicago scoring a game winner the last two minutes in overtime?

@StopPunting @JoeandSeth needs to be the one to explain their case. As I understand it, Chicago got ball with 6:10 left in OT and scored with 4:50 left in OT.

1) Since that score ended the game, does it count as "time expiring"? I say no, they say yes.

2) Since that score happened in the last 2 minutes of the game (not the game clock, but actual game time), does it count for last 2 minute game winning drive? I say no, they say yes.

I believe that is the core of the debate but apologies Joe and Seth if I've stated your position wrong.

@MRME yeah it's meant to be the last 2 minutes on the clock, otherwise any OT game would count, I'll make it more clear in the future

@StopPunting I dont agree. This one says in the last two minutes - if the last drive took longer than 2 minutes, then this would resolve no. I read it as "last drive is game-winning and takes less than 2 minutes"

@JoeandSeth I'll try to be more clear about it in the future, I meant it as the clock timed last 2 minutes in regulation or overtime

bought Ṁ720 YES

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/gardner-minshew-injured-chiefs-qb-chris-oladokun/

Also need to think about how season ending injury is going to be defined the next couple weeks...if you are seriously going to count as little as 2 games as season ending, time for some sweet mana plays on my part <3

bought Ṁ75 NO

depends on how this market defines last 2 minutes. Chicago got the ball back (started their game-winning drive) in overtime and within the next two minutes both they scored a touchdown and the game ended.
I don't think this qualifies as 'as time expires', but...

sold Ṁ694 YES

@JoeandSeth fairly certain that doesn't count but obviously @StopPunting is the authority here. I'll leave it alone for now and not double down further.

bought Ṁ150 NO

I don't see what game winning drive started in last 2 minutes. Come take my mana and prove me wrong.

@StopPunting Stingley (Texans)

bought Ṁ250 YES

@StopPunting Chase Brown (Bengals)

bought Ṁ552 YES

@JoeandSeth oh duh! nice catch

Alright @JoeandSeth who did I miss for player with 3+ TDs?

bought Ṁ904 YES

@EstMtz your triangle number prop finally hit!

bought Ṁ654 YES

@StopPunting I don't believe it, but 3 games in and we have a letter bingo.

AJ Barner, Blake Corum, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Puka Nacua, Rashid Shaheed, Terrance Ferguson, Zach Charbonnet, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, DJ Moore, Jahdae Walker, Romeo Doubs

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