Before which date at midnight EDT in 2025 will any model conquer Pokémon Red or Blue?
23
550Ṁ7294
Jul 15
1%
June 8
1%
July 8
1%
June 30
1%
June 15
1%
June 22
1.2%
July 15
1.8%
July 23
2%
July 31
3%
August 8
4%
August 15
5%
August 23
12%
August 31
15%
September 8
43%
September 15
50%
September 22
53%
September 30
Resolved
NO
April 30
Resolved
NO
May 8
Resolved
NO
May 23
Resolved
NO
May 31

Multiple LLMs are now playing and advancing through the Pokémon Red and Blue games (which are mostly identical in gameplay.)

This market will resolve all the times to YES that occur after the time when an AI model satisfies the criteria of an Any % speedrun for either game, landing the final blow on the final boss. Answers where time runs out first will resolve to NO. It is also possible that, if LLM progress does not advance at the same rate it has been, all answers could resolve to NO.

The same model version must have played through the entire game from start to finish, although the developer is permitted to make changes to its settings. The model that beats the game can be run in an official capacity by the company or by a third-party developer.

  • Update 2025-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human intervention disqualification: If a human ever presses the game buttons or directly instructs the model to take a specific action at any point during the run, that run is disqualified.

    • Allowed prompt adjustments: Changing prompts during the run (e.g., modifying settings like using 8 memory files instead of 4) remains valid, provided no direct human input controls game actions.

  • Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Following discussion regarding a specific run, the creator has stated that for a run to be counted as a win, the model must complete it without a single change to its prompt during the entire run.

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