Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on how long the Portuguese government formed following the May 18, 2025 legislative election remains in office.
Start Date (Clock Begins)
The duration count begins at the moment the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers are officially sworn in by the President of Portugal.
End Date (Clock Stops)
The clock stops at the earliest of the following:
The Prime Minister’s resignation is accepted by the President
The Prime Minister is dismissed by the President
The Prime Minister dies or becomes permanently unable to serve, triggering the formation of a new government
A new Prime Minister and Council of Ministers are sworn in, replacing the existing government (including after elections)
A cabinet reshuffle, change of ministers, or coalition reconfiguration does not end the government as long as the same Prime Minister remains in office.
If the government resigns but continues in a caretaker role, the end date is still when the resignation is accepted.
Outcome Ranges
The market resolves based on total time in office:
Less than 1 year — Fewer than 365 days
Between 1 and 2 years — 365–730 days
Between 2 and 3 years — 731–1,095 days
Between 3 and 4 years — 1,096–1,460 days
Full term — 1,461 to 1,825 days (completes a standard four-year legislative term but does not extend beyond it)
More than a full term — More than 1,825 days
Important Clarification on “More Than a Full Term”
If the government remains in office after the four-year legislative term has officially expired — including in a caretaker capacity while awaiting new elections or government formation — the clock continues running until one of the end conditions occurs. Any duration exceeding 1,825 days resolves as “More than a full term.”
Time Measurement
Duration is measured in full 24-hour days from the swearing-in timestamp to the end event timestamp.
Sources
Resolution will rely on official communications from the President of Portugal, the Portuguese government, or the Assembleia da República, with confirmation from reputable Portuguese or international news outlets if necessary.
Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Re-election does not count as "More than a full term": If the same Prime Minister is re-elected after the standard four-year legislative term, this counts as a new government and a new clock. This market only measures the uninterrupted duration of the government formed after the May 18, 2025 election. The "More than a full term" option only applies if the government remains in office beyond 1,825 days without a new election forming a new government.
1,000@MartimLobao No, a re-election would count as a new government and a new clock. This market only measures the uninterrupted duration of the government formed after the May 18, 2025 election.