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There’s still a lack of a “official” source directly saying that the majority of the payments have been dispersed. That being said, there are many sources indicating service members have received payments around the 20th, and given the lack of any reporting whatsoever on delays I think it is safe enough to assume that this market should resolve yes. if anything substantial comes to light in the next few weeks I can always unresolve.

https://www.kktv.com/2025/12/21/im-just-very-thankful-it-cos-service-members-receive-warrior-dividend-federal-government

@Sketchy ideally you should wait to resolve until it's conclusively shown from official stats that at least half the service members have gotten the dividend before Dec 25.

I'm fairly new to Manifold though, I didn't even know unresolving was an option. Don't you think reversing the resolution later may lead to newer folks going into negative balances?

This has already occurred, it's just a matter of how the reporting on it happens. I doubt we'd see reporting on the number of people who have received it, since it's assumed to have happened, but if there were significant numbers who didn't receive it, I would expect to see press on that.

@spiderduckpig So what criteria is going to be used in the case of lack of news?

@spiderduckpig if on the 25th there’s no good reporting one way or another I can wait a bit. I agree that an absence of reporting doesn’t really mean a lot, I’d want articles affirmatively in either direction.

I don’t really want to do a bunch of research on Christmas anyway lol

Are there any numbers yet on how many people have received the money? Is there a credible/official source for it?

This should really be like 95% lol

@spiderduckpig Trump is a too risky facror - his words are false claims too often. But you are right. Money are in budget, approved and scheduled

@spiderduckpig two fiddy at 94%. fill me big boss

I don’t get why this is so low. Department of war says it arrives by Dec 20, and some members have received it already.

I am very tempted to bet but I try not to on even mildly subjective markets.

I think we're all betting that [Trump promise = false promise]

@ItsMe not saying that’s not a good prior but sometimes inside view wins

@Sketchy arriving by December 20 doesn't necessarily equal 700k U.S. military service members receiving a $1,776 "warrior dividend" before the end of Christmas (December 25, 2025)

I'm personally betting no because I feel like the odds of 700k of them receiving the warrior dividend before 5 days pass are far lower than 80%

@theScalper that’s fair! When I commented the market was around 20%