How will Manifold die?
53
1.2kแน29593069
25%
Manifold is eternal
22%
Heat death
7%
6%
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
5%
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
5%
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
4%
with thunderous applause
4%
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama
3%
They go bankrupt
3%
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
3%
Not with a bang but a whimper
2%
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
2%
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
1.6%
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
1.5%
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
1.1%
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
1%
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
1%
destroyed by great hwan empire
this market never resolves ๐ค
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?
28% chance
Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?
94% chance
Will someone commit murder for the sake of a Manifold death market by the end of 2030?
3% chance
Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
10% chance
Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?
3% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
How dramatic is Manifold?
56% chance
How can Manifold improve?
แน3,196 bounty