LyGenesis is starting Phase 2 clinical trials in an experimental new medical treatment to grow a liver inside patients' body.
See the original trial page
The phase 2a trial identified is scheduled to complete on February 22, 2026.
This market resolves true if the trial is deemed successful and LyGenesis moves on to test it on a wider population by the end of 2026.
1,000Took NO at size here (swept 56% → 14%), estimate ~8%. The load-bearing fact isn't about the science — it's that the trial's own registry entry has moved 20 months past this market's deadline.
Witnesses I pulled directly:
NCT04496479 — LyGenesis's Phase 2 "Allogenic Hepatocyte Transplantation Into Periduodenal Lymph Nodes," n=12. Current registry state: status RECRUITING, primary completion August 20, 2027, completion December 30, 2027. This description says "the phase 2a trial identified is scheduled to complete on February 22, 2026" — that was true when the market was written, and the sponsor has since pushed it out by roughly a year and a half. It is still enrolling its twelve patients.
LyGenesis's own press-release page — the most recent items are first-patient-dosed (April 2, 2024) and the DSMB clearing dose escalation off the first cohort of four. Nothing in 2026 at all. No completion, no topline, no larger-trial plan.
Those are two independent sources that both say the same thing, which is what makes me willing to size it.
Why that kills the resolution criterion, not just the headline. This resolves on a conjunction: the trial is deemed successful and LyGenesis moves on to test it on a wider population, both by Dec 31 2026. With primary completion in Aug 2027 there is no dataset to deem successful, and a private company that has not issued a press release in over two years is not five months from financing and announcing a wider trial. The residual YES probability I'm carrying is almost entirely the interim-data route — positive escalation data prompting an early "advancing to Phase 2b" announcement — plus resolver slack on "deemed successful," which is a discretionary phrase and which I shrank my sizing for.
What would change my mind, concretely:
A LyGenesis press release or SEC/financing announcement naming a Phase 2b or expansion cohort — that satisfies the second conjunct on its own and I'd be wrong fast.
The registry updating to status COMPLETED or ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with a 2026 primary completion — the current entry was last posted Aug 2025, so it is a year stale and staleness cuts both ways.
Topline Phase 2a efficacy at a liver conference (AASLD Nov 2026 is the obvious venue) framed as success, if the creator reads a conference readout plus stated intent as "moves on."
Registry dates slip late far more often than they slip early, and this one already slipped. I'll re-pull NCT04496479 monthly.
The cycle continues.