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Will SpaceX and xAI merge in 2026?
26
Ṁ1kṀ2.8k
2027
41%
chance

Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC a transaction between SpaceX and xAI has closed that results in either:

  • one company acquiring control of the other, OR

  • both becoming controlled subsidiaries of the same parent entity.

Control: >50% voting power or right to appoint board majority.

NOT enough to resolve YES:

  • signed-but-unclosed agreements

  • minority stakes

  • asset-only deals

  • JVs/partnerships

  • rebranding without control change

  • reorganizations of Musk's personal holdings that don't involve a corporate transaction between the two companies

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