Will SpaceX and xAI merge in 2026?
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Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC a transaction between SpaceX and xAI has closed that results in either:
one company acquiring control of the other, OR
both becoming controlled subsidiaries of the same parent entity.
Control: >50% voting power or right to appoint board majority.
NOT enough to resolve YES:
signed-but-unclosed agreements
minority stakes
asset-only deals
JVs/partnerships
rebranding without control change
reorganizations of Musk's personal holdings that don't involve a corporate transaction between the two companies
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