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MANIFOLD
Who cancels the SpaceX–Anthropic compute deal first?
8
Ṁ3kṀ2.3k
2029
14%
SpaceX
17%
Anthropic
69%
Both/Neither/Unclear
  • Resolves SpaceX if SpaceX is first to issue a termination notice or publicly confirm ending the Colossus compute agreement.

  • Resolves Anthropic if Anthropic is first to do so.

  • Resolves Both/Neither/Unclear if termination is mutual or simultaneous, the deal runs to its contractual end (reported as May 2029) or is renewed/replaced without cancellation, or the initiating party can't be determined.

  • Renegotiation, downsizing, partial capacity reallocation, or transfer to a successor agreement does not count as cancellation, the agreement must actually end.

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The termination terms in Anthropic's S-1 matter here. The SpaceXAI agreements run into 2029, up to $120.5 billion at about $3.1 billion a month at full capacity, but after initial periods ending in January and March 2027, either party can cancel on 90 days' written notice. So nobody needs a breach to walk, and the first window opens early next year. SpaceX's Q3 10-Q also shows an unnamed "Customer B" at 34.5% of quarterly revenue. That fits Anthropic, though the match is circumstantial. If it's right, SpaceX has far more riding on this deal than the May 2029 date suggests. Source: Equibles, https://equibles.com/research/anthropics-s-1-checked-against-amazon-google-microsoft-and-broadcom-filings