Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
70
4.1kṀ33k3000
16%
Dies before AGI has been developed
31%
Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI
29%
Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough
7%
Dies for other reason post-AGI
4%
Chooses not to live to 1000
14%
Makes it to 1000
https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080
"the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"
For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
This is a follow-up to this market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2029?
48% chance
What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Immortality or Death by AGI?
Will CGP Grey live to be 100 years old?
17% chance
What will average human life look like after AGI?
Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
19% chance
Will King Charles live to see the creation of AGI?
15% chance