Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the number of homicides recorded in Mexico on January 27, 2026 exceeds 48. The resolution will be based on preliminary homicide data reported by Mexico's Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) via the daily homicide report at elcri.men/en/daily-report/. If the SSPC data is unavailable, resolution will use the most recent official preliminary data from Mexico's National Public Security System (SESNSP).

Background

Mexico recorded an average of 64 homicides per day in 2025, a decline of 30.2% compared to 2024. In December 2025, there was an average of 52.4 homicides per day. On January 1, 2026, 49 killings were recorded across the country during the first 24 hours of the year. The threshold of 48 homicides is slightly below the recent daily average, making this a close call relative to current trends.

Considerations

Daily homicide data comes from preliminary reports prepared by state prosecutors' offices and public security agencies, which may differ from official records later consolidated by institutions such as INEGI or SESNSP based on judicial and prosecutorial case files. Daily figures can fluctuate significantly and are subject to revision. Additionally, lethal violence remains highly concentrated in a few states, with seven of Mexico's 32 states accounting for just over 50% of homicides nationwide.