Reason: Neither bloc holds the 61-seat majority, and Lieberman says he will not serve in a Netanyahu government, which makes a return to the premiership harder.

Other traders should consider: Likud is the largest party with 27 seats, but a plurality did not get Netanyahu the government in 2021. The president has not yet assigned a mandate, so watch for coalition talks and any new election cycle.

So what happens if there is newly formed government and Netanyahu is the caretaker prime minister and they have a second election. He would be the caretaker PM after the next election and no new government would be formed.

how does this resolve if there are multiple rounds of elections

What about the old split premiership terms switcheroo?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I would imagine yes if he’s the first and no if second

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/who-will-be-the-israeli-pm-after-th?r=MDQ4Mg

Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?

Sure, why not, let's bet with my heart. That man has more political lives than a cat has regular ones. If anyone can pull through that's him.