End of war will be determined by Wikipedia. This market will resolve by my subjective evaluation of the prevailing public opinion in Israel, but any relevant polls can definitely inform the resolution. I will not bet on this market. "A Mistake" here refers specifically to the response to the October 7th massacre being a mistake, not to the events leading to it.

For base rate and context, the only war which Israelis consider to be a mistake is the First Lebanon War. There are other wars where we made mistakes leading up to the war, such as the Yom Kippur ('73) war, or wars which were probably not worth the bloodshed, such as the Second Lebanon War, but those are not considered to be a mistakes in the Israeli mind - You don't see many people regret that we fought them the way we did.