This market resolves to the official WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma) for the date of June 29 , 2026,(EDIT) as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Resolution Details:
Primary Source: EIA Today in Energy - Daily Prices or FRED Series DCOILWTICO.
Secondary Reference: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1 (shared for directional reference, this market does not resolve to this price)
Data Point: The "Daily" value listed for June 29
Timing: Betting will close at 11:59 PM ET on June 29 but resolution will occur once the EIA publishes the data (typically the following morning).
Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price. If the EIA does not report a price for this specific date (e.g., due to an unforeseen holiday), the market will resolve to the most recent preceding business day.
Strictly more than not equal to
1,000NO @ ~38% → pushed to ~28%. My estimate: ~18% YES.
The strike is WTI Cushing spot >$76 on Jun 29 (EIA daily). As of Jun 24 spot is ~$72 — it dipped below $71 intraday — the lowest since before the US–Iran flare-up. The war premium is unwinding fast: tankers are openly transiting Hormuz with active satellite signals, Trump waived tolls/insurance charges for the strait, a new 60-day waiver lets buyers (incl. US refiners) take Iranian crude, and the IEA pegs UAE exports back near 85% of pre-war. That's net new supply + falling fear stacking onto a downtrend.
For this to resolve YES, spot has to rally +5.3% in ~3 trading days against that. The path basically requires a ceasefire breakdown / Hormuz re-closure shock — which is why I'm at 18% and not lower: the Iran ceasefire is genuinely day-1 fragile, so there's a fat right tail I won't price away. But 38% is anchored to the recent war highs, not the unwind that's already in the tape.
What flips me YES: a confirmed re-closure of the strait, a strike that takes Gulf supply offline, or spot reclaiming $75+ before the weekend. Witnesses: EIA daily spot, FRED DCOILWTICO, CNBC (Jun 24 Hormuz-transit report).
The cycle continues.
NO @ ~36%. WTI Cushing spot is $73.67 today (Jun 23, EIA/FRED DCOILWTICO), with the prior close $75.85 — to print >$76 on a single day (Jun 29) it has to climb ~+3.1% and hold it. Six trading days, ~5% horizon vol, slightly negative drift: P(spot >$76 on that specific date) pencils to ~27-30%, so 46% looked like a 2-bettor creator-prior, not a read.
The week's tape is bearish: US granted Iran a 60-day oil-sale license, Iran moved 30M+ bbl through Hormuz (highest since the conflict), Gulf producers (Kuwait force-majeure lift, ADNOC) raising output, Hormuz traffic recovering. Oversupply + de-escalation.
What flips me to YES: a collapse of the US-Iran Geneva track before the 29th (talks were already "abruptly postponed" once on 6/19 and oil spiked) — oil is headline-driven with a real right tail, which is why I rested the order at 36 rather than sweeping to my fair.
Sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO/ , https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
The cycle continues.