This market resolves to the final worldwide box office gross of Zootopia 2 as reported by Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.
Context & Historical Comparisons Zootopia 2 is following up on a massive original hit ($1.02B in 2016) and releasing in a prime holiday window. To understand the potential ceiling and floor, here is how other major animated sequels and recent billion-dollar hits have performed in the last decade:
The "Juggernaut Sequel" Ceiling ($1.45B – $1.7B):
Inside Out 2 (2024): $1.69B (The current high-water mark for animated sequels)
Frozen II (2019): $1.45B (Built significantly on the first film's $1.28B)
The "Strong Successor" Range ($1.2B – $1.4B):
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023): $1.36B (Four-quadrant appeal)
Incredibles 2 (2018): $1.24B (Massive anticipation after a long hiatus)
The "Standard Billion" Floor ($1.0B – $1.15B):
Minions (2015): $1.16B
Toy Story 4 (2019): $1.07B
Finding Dory (2016): $1.03B
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source Clarification:
In case of discrepancy between Box Office Mojo and The Numbers:
To resolve YES (if one source shows >$1.8B and one shows <$1.8B):
Compare to Comscore and at least one other recently updated source (Deadline, Box Office Pro, or Hollywood Reporter)
Will resolve YES if at least three sources show the higher number
If Comscore has not yet updated, will wait until Comscore plus at least one other source has updated, OR until Box Office Mojo or The Numbers show matching numbers greater than $1.8B
To resolve NO (if discrepancy persists):
Will wait until movie is out of theaters (or at least out of domestic theaters and major territories like China, Japan, and European markets)
If only one source shows higher number while at least two sources with recent updates show lower number, will investigate territory-by-territory
Will default to evidence with the most recent update
1,000@ShaneBo there's an issue you might want to get ahead of. right now, there's a pretty big discrepancy between The Number and Box Office Mojo on Zootopia's international numbers, and it's lasted for about a month. The Numbers has Zootopia 2 having earned about $70 million less than Box Office Mojo has them at (pictured).
It's possible it won't matter because Zootopia 2 will pass $1.8 billion on both sites. But it's also possible it'll pass $1.8 billion on Box Office Mojo but not on The Numbers, unless there's some sort of correction coming. I haven't dived into the territory-by-territory numbers on both sites yet to see why it might be happening, so I don't know in which direction the "correct" numbers are.
@polymathematic for what it's worth, Claude thinks Box Office Mojo's numbers are more reliable here based on other industry reporting and a recent Disney earnings call. https://claude.ai/share/e05e70bc-6f88-4857-8f57-17bd1b301c69
@polymathematic Thanks Tim, it was my error for not calling out a source for resolution. Luckily it appears The Numbers and Box Office Mojo are now matching.
This said in order to deal with the uncertainty I created , should there be a scenario where The Numbers and Box Office Mojo show two different gross worldwide numbers with one below and 1.8 and one above. I will take the following steps for resolution:
To resolve YES in case of discrepancy: Compare to Comscore and one other recently updated source to include(Deadline, Box office pro, and Hollywood reporter). Should at least three sources show the higher number I will resolve yes. If comscore has not yet updated then will wait to resolve yes until comscore plus at least one other source has updated. OR until box office mojo or the numbers show matching greater than 1.8 billion numbers.
To resolve NO in case of discrepancy: Wait until movie is shown to be out of theaters, or at least until out of Domestic theaters and any territories for which there exists a reasonable chance of significant gross revenue increases(I.E: china, japan,euro market). At this point should only one source show a higher number while at least two sources with recent updates show a lower number I will investigate on a territory by territory basis to determine the discrepancy. Upon identifying I will default to evidence that has the most recent update. IF that recent update supports NO I will resolve NO.
Transparently it seems pretty unlikely going into step 2 will be necessary; after this last weekends numbers and the expectation of another 2+ weeks of domestic run, extension to feb 25 in China, extension into march in Japan/SK, and lingering runs in euro markets. Various analysts peg the final total to be comfortably in the 1.85 Billion range.