Resolves to yes if Apple receives a complete exemption from the imported goods tariff on China or is required to pay only 10% or less by April 30. If both the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports decreases to 20% AND no exemption to Apple is made by April 30, this market resolves to N/A.
Update 2025-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Exemption Criteria Clarification:
Apple does not need to be explicitly mentioned by name as long as it is, in practice, either completely exempt or subject to 10% or less tariff.
If there is any ambiguity regarding whether these conditions have been met, the market will resolve once a definitive answer is reached.
Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
The calculation now uses the cost Apple pays to import rather than sales revenue.
New formula: (sum [cost of unexempt imports from China_i * tariff_i]) > (10% * cost of all products imported from China).
This calculation will reference the data from the last fiscal year ended in 2024.
Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New Calculation Basis:
Resolution criteria will now be based on the cost Apple pays to import goods rather than on sales revenue.
Calculations will use cost data from the last fiscal year ended in 2024.
Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Imputed Percentages and Methodology Disclosure
The percentages used for determining the weighted tariff calculation will be imputed based on established estimates of goods made in respective countries.
The creator will provide a detailed explanation of the methodology prior to finalizing the resolution for review.
If there is significant dispute over the methodology or the final percentage falls within a margin of error away from the 10% criteria, the market will resolve to N/A.
1,000@Panfilo i understand you. However, the switch from revenue to cost as a resolution criteria did not actually cause a big swing. It would not have caused a delayed effect either since my announcement that revenue would be used came only a couple hours before my update that cost would be used
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20xn626y81o
"These electronic goods are still subject to the 20% tariff on China related to fentanyl, White House Deputy Chief of Staff on Policy Stephen Miller posted on X."
There's no way apple pays 145% more on something as trivial and replaceable as phone covers and accessories. If they did not stock up before liberation day (and they probably did) they would just do without until they can find another supplier.
My point is that Apple is effeively tariff free (everything they care about from China is exempt, everything else is at most baseline 10%) until the reciprocal tariff extension expires (or something else changes)
It is unlikely that Apple accessories like phone cases are exempted from the tariffs
@spiderduckpig If it comes down to it, I will look to see if:
(sum [revenue from unexempt imports from China_i * tariff_i]) > (10% * revenue from all products imported from China)
... according to the last fiscal year ended in 2024
@ShamalPerera To clarify, what you're saying is the criteria is if the weighted tariff on Apple imports from China is at least 10%?
@spiderduckpig And when you say revenue, do you mean the value of imported goods or the revenue Apple derives from selling those goods?
@ShamalPerera But the price that Apple pays to import goods is significantly lower than the price it sells its goods at, for example it might buy an iPhone from China for $500 and sell it for $1,100. So a 20% tariff on Apple goods might only be <10% of its total sales revenue. Is that the intended purpose of this formula?
@spiderduckpig Great point, I missed that. I retract my previous calculation for the weighted tariff rates. In order to stick with the spirit of my original criteria, it will be cost Apple pays to import.
New formula:
(sum [cost of unexempt imports from China_i * tariff_i]) > (10% * cost of all products imported from China)
@ShamalPerera Apple does not report such information, not for FY 2024 or ever.
cost of unexempt imports from China
cost of all products imported from China
revenue from unexempt imports from China
revenue from all products imported from China)
@deagol It will be imputed. There are good estimates of percentages of various goods made in respective countries. I will comment my methodology before resolving for anyone to critique. If there is significant dispute or the final percentage is within a margin of error of 10%, then it will resolve N/A.
@Odoacre bear with me here but Apple doesn’t seem to be exempt from tariffs based on this? For example, Airpods are $15-20B of Apple’s revenue each year but their tariff code seems to be 8517.62.0090
Machines For The Reception, Conversion And Transmission Or Regeneration Of Voice, Images Or Other Data, Others
…which is not exempted.
@bence They do not need to be mentioned by name if, in practice, they are exempt or subject to 10% or less. If there is any ambiguity then the market will resolve once a definitive answer is reached.