@SemioticRivalry any particular reason the close date is in June, not November? Thanks!

@AnonUser @SemioticRivalry ping

• Dems lead by 3 in the generic ballot

• Dem coalition seems quite optimized for midterm turnout

• Off party's advantage tends to increase as the midterm election draws nearer

• Ohio shifted left in 2024 relative to the country

• The Republican incumbent for this seat was nominated and not elected; these candidates often underperform

• Sherrod Brown is running again and is effectively a Dem incumbent

• Brown only lost by 3.5% in 2024, an R+2 year (although Moreno was a worse opponent than Husted)
  
  I think Dems are more likely to win this seat than they are to win Maine. I have placed a limit order at 40%.