Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
27
1kṀ16452029
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Nick Bostrom (philosopher at the University of Oxford, existential risk researcher) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
If you're new to this series, this market doesn't mean I think Bostrom may get a charge. He seems good-natured to me.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Max Tegmark (physicist, Future of Life Institute) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance
Will Anders Sandberg (researcher and futurist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
61% chance
Will Robin Hanson (professor, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
3% chance
Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
3% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
6% chance
Will Jordan Peterson be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
8% chance
Will Jeff Bezos be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance